Population expert finds decline in births for ninth year in a row

Tue, 28 Jan 2020

An expert in population studies has said IOM Government figures reveal a decline in the number of births for the ninth consecutive year. 

 

Paul Craine, who's published 'Manx Population Atlas', said that in 2010, the total number of babies born on the Island peaked at 1,023. 

 

He also highlighted that last year, the number of births registered was just 710. 

 

Births have fallen by 30.6% in nine years, which Mr Craine said the effects of which will be 'long-lasting.' 

 

He explained: 'One inevitable, and relatively short-term effect, will be a reduction in the size of the primary school population. The oldest of the 1,015 pupils born in 2009 (see graph) are now turning the age of 11 and those still resident on the Island will soon be moving on from primary school. 

 

'The pupils replacing them will be those born early in 2015 who are now reaching age 5 – a much smaller group of just 785. Total primary school numbers could fall by around 200 per year over each of the next five years.'

 

One longer-term effect will be a gap in the current 0-4 years age group as it passes up the population pyramid graph which will still be visible in 70 years’ time in the same way that the post-war baby boom is visible today.

 

Although a global effect, Scotland and Wales had declines of approximately 15% and 13% respectively, whilst England and Northern Ireland both had declines of around 10%.

 

Mr Craine found that the number of deaths recorded in the Isle of Man in 2019 was 850, giving a natural population decline (excess of deaths over births) of 140 - the fifth consecutive year that the Island has experienced more deaths than births. 

 

The Island’s population would be shrinking except that, according to government estimates, this is compensated by modest migration flows. The Isle of Man is not the only country to be faced with an ageing population and natural population decline – but its ageing is happening at a faster rate than in most other countries. 

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